FiveThirtyEight.com

A First Look at Palin’s Primary Math
by Nate Silver @ FiveThirtyEight.com

…or so, at least, I predict. And I’m putting my money–and stomach–where my keyboard is, as Nate and I made a two-part bet. We wagered a steak dinner on whether or not Sarah Palin runs for the Republican nomination, me betting she doesn’t. We have a second wager on whether she wins the nomination, with me giving Nate 3:1 odds on a cash bet of undisclosed amount that she doesn’t. (The second bet is not conditional on the first: If Palin doesn’t run at all, I win the steak and the cash.)